Election junkie - just had my morning fix
I got this email this moring from a friend:
Subject: Election junkie - just had my morning fix
Hey Justin, Phew! Just read Margo's piece on web diary - not "Poor George" flagged on the main site page, but the longer piece "Labor's Costello wedge keeps Wentworth on the move". It's fascinating to watch the number of opposing trends that seem to be playing concurrently in this campaign - in particular the different interests of disaffected Liberals in safe Liberal seats (over issues like refugees and the war in Iraq) alongside the marginal mortgage belt's concerns about interest rates. Turnbull's comments to the Bondi voter in Margo's piece are amazing. Would be cool if Peter King runs in Wentworth.
I know, it's all happening!
I do doubt Margo's excitement about disaffected Liberals leaving in droves though. I think a more realistic assessment suggests they will do what disaffected Labor voters do, and put someone else at no.1 but then preference the Libs. Labor has already adjusted itself to this phenomenon and still takes us for granted because they know (a) not enough people will defect to the Greens, esp. if they think the Greens might actually win; and (b) ultimately, as Gerard Henderson said yesterday, you HAVE to vote for either the Coalition or Labor.
Peter King could make it interesting in the way that independent ex-National mayors (like Tony Windsor) are beating the pre-selected National Party candidates. But Howard is safe in Bennelong - it's not that small "l" liberal - and elsewhere. So probably only a seat or two max, and Peter King would quite possibly preference Turnbull anyway, so if he gets 3rd (likely) Turnbull wins after all. Besides which he probably won't run. It's not like he has an excuse, since he ousted the sitting MP Andrew Thompson himself....
Everyone knows Howard lied to parliament over the Children Overboard Affair. Robert Manne pointed out that there is a gap in the Westminster convention here if the PM decides to just ride out the wave of criticism, telling us accountability rests on events on polling day. He figures people won't care by the time the election comes around. And then when the election does arrive, he wants us to "focus on the future" as if accountability for the past is not a fundamental part of any election (remember 1996 anyone?). Watch the Letters pages - plenty of people are buying it.
This is an election in which the public is being asked to rank truth and accountability in government alongside mortgage interest rates and Medicare and the war on terrorism. Howard is actually appealing to voter apathy and cynicism, saying "you can trust me on the only thing you really care about: your mortgage."
The irony with all the "death of democracy" talk among the left is that the public may actually vote for their own disenfranchisement. Now there's the real shades of fascism.
Peace,
Justin
Subject: Election junkie - just had my morning fix
Hey Justin, Phew! Just read Margo's piece on web diary - not "Poor George" flagged on the main site page, but the longer piece "Labor's Costello wedge keeps Wentworth on the move". It's fascinating to watch the number of opposing trends that seem to be playing concurrently in this campaign - in particular the different interests of disaffected Liberals in safe Liberal seats (over issues like refugees and the war in Iraq) alongside the marginal mortgage belt's concerns about interest rates. Turnbull's comments to the Bondi voter in Margo's piece are amazing. Would be cool if Peter King runs in Wentworth.
I know, it's all happening!
I do doubt Margo's excitement about disaffected Liberals leaving in droves though. I think a more realistic assessment suggests they will do what disaffected Labor voters do, and put someone else at no.1 but then preference the Libs. Labor has already adjusted itself to this phenomenon and still takes us for granted because they know (a) not enough people will defect to the Greens, esp. if they think the Greens might actually win; and (b) ultimately, as Gerard Henderson said yesterday, you HAVE to vote for either the Coalition or Labor.
Peter King could make it interesting in the way that independent ex-National mayors (like Tony Windsor) are beating the pre-selected National Party candidates. But Howard is safe in Bennelong - it's not that small "l" liberal - and elsewhere. So probably only a seat or two max, and Peter King would quite possibly preference Turnbull anyway, so if he gets 3rd (likely) Turnbull wins after all. Besides which he probably won't run. It's not like he has an excuse, since he ousted the sitting MP Andrew Thompson himself....
Everyone knows Howard lied to parliament over the Children Overboard Affair. Robert Manne pointed out that there is a gap in the Westminster convention here if the PM decides to just ride out the wave of criticism, telling us accountability rests on events on polling day. He figures people won't care by the time the election comes around. And then when the election does arrive, he wants us to "focus on the future" as if accountability for the past is not a fundamental part of any election (remember 1996 anyone?). Watch the Letters pages - plenty of people are buying it.
This is an election in which the public is being asked to rank truth and accountability in government alongside mortgage interest rates and Medicare and the war on terrorism. Howard is actually appealing to voter apathy and cynicism, saying "you can trust me on the only thing you really care about: your mortgage."
The irony with all the "death of democracy" talk among the left is that the public may actually vote for their own disenfranchisement. Now there's the real shades of fascism.
Peace,
Justin
posted by Justin at 11:09 am
1 Comments:
Welcome to the wonderful world of blogging, Justin.
Amanda
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